With a new look, new format, a new stadium and a new team, Asia’s best domestic competition returns for a 32nd season this weekend as J.League action gets underway across nine Japanese cities.
For the first time in its history (setting aside the one-off COVID-impacted 2021 campaign) the league is set for permanent expansion to 20 teams, with the relegation/promotion playoff scrapped and three sides facing the drop to J2 directly.
There is a J1 debutant in the shape of Machida Zelvia, Tokyo Verdy are back in the top flight for the first time in 15 years and Hiroshima’s brilliant new, downtown stadium is open and ready for action.
A couple of clubs have undergone dubious re-brandings, there’s been a long overdue restructuring of the League Cup from the torturous group stage to a straight knockout format and there’s a slew of exciting new arrivals across the league although, unusually, just the three coaching changes.
All is set then for another thrilling season in Japan’s top flight and The Asian Game gives you an overview of who the title contenders are, who might struggle and some young players to watch.
I have Urawa and Nagoya sitting at the top of the likely title contenders, Machida as a genuine title dark horse, FC Tokyo the club with the most variance and Sapporo, Kyoto and Shonan as the clubs most likely facing the threat of promotion but, as always in J1, it’s a wide open competition and one that’s very hard to accurately predict.
CONTENDERS (Urawa Red Diamonds, Nagoya Grampus, Vissel Kobe, Kawasaki Frontale, Yokohama F. Marinos)
With a vastly experienced new coach at the helm, no continental distractions and enough midfield talent to field three competitive J1 teams, everything is set up for Urawa Red Diamonds to win just their second title, and the first in almost two decades. New Norwegian coach Per-Mathias Høgmo is set to switch to a 4-3-3 and has brought in three assured new starters in the middle/front six who should have a real impact, especially the experienced Brazilian Thiago Santana who seems just the kind of frontman the club has been looking for. There are some real questions at left-back but that’s about it; they have quality and depth right across the rest of the pitch and, along with the next club, for me they are the team to beat.
That other team is Nagoya Grampus, especially if the increasingly conservative coach Hasegawa loosens the reins just a little. Although they lost the three main starters in the league’s stingiest defence in recent seasons, the internal cover and the new signings should be enough to help (look especially for young Haruki Yoshida to have a breakthrough season). In attack though they have close to best front three in the top flight (in an expected 3-4-1-2) in Tsukasa Morishima, the prolific Kasper Junker and the superb new signing Yuya Yamagishi, who has been one of the more underrated players in the league in recent times.
I have a feeling that Vissel Kobe may struggle to repeat their maiden title heroics from last year and it’s probably only Yosuke Ideguchi of the new signings that can be expected to crack the first XI. Several of the options further forward are getting towards the back end of their careers and both the summer heat and then ACL commitments may stall a title defence late in the season.
One team that should be more dynamic is Kawasaki Frontale, with the arrivals of Yuki Yamamoto and the Brazilian Erison (and perhaps Ze Ricardo at the base of the 4-3-3) giving them more creativity and goal threat. With the electric winger Marcinho fit again they’ll likely score plenty but, as always, the issue is a defence that’s seen minimal improvement and whether they can keep the goals out at the other end.
There’s no question that Yokohama F.Marinos still have a really deep and talented squad and they have the best front three in the division in the shape of Yan Matheus, Elber and Anderson Lopes. The long-term injury to central defender Shinnosuke Hatanaka is a blow but there are huge questions in goal with the untested William Popp a gamble for a club of this stature, while concerns in some quarters about the new man at the helm in Harry Kewell also need to be settled.
URAWA RED DIAMONDS
COACH: Per-Mathias HØGMO (NOR)
KEY PLAYERS: Thiago Santana, Samuel Gustafson
PLAYER TO WATCH: Hidetoshi Takeda
NAGOYA GRAMPUS
COACH: Kenta HASEGAWA (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Kasper Junker, Sho Inagaki
PLAYER TO WATCH: Haruki Yoshida
VISSEL KOBE
COACH: Takayuki YOSHIDA (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Yuya Osako, Yoshinori Muto
PLAYER TO WATCH: Mitsuki Hidaka
KAWASAKI FRONTALE
COACH: Toru ONIKI (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Erison, Marcinho
PLAYER TO WATCH: Renji Matsui
YOKOHAMA F.MARINOS
COACH: Harry KEWELL (AUS)
KEY PLAYERS: Anderson Lopes, Elber
PLAYER TO WATCH: Riku Yamane
CHALLENGERS (Sanfrecce Hiroshima, FC Tokyo, Machida Zelvia, Kashima Antlers, Cerezo Osaka)
Heading the list of other teams I think are potential challengers are Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a team that is absolutely capable of mounting a serious title push. They have both balance and creativity (including one of the best in the league in Makoto Mitsuta) in central midfield and a good young keeper. The concerns for me are an ageing defence with limited cover and the still as yet unsettled issue of who the main player is at the top of the 3-4-2-1, with key off-season signing Yuki Ohashi perhaps set to be beaten out by Pieros Sotiriou and one of that pair will need to provide a consistent source of goals.
FC Tokyo are just as capable of winning the league as they are of finishing in lower mid-table. Peter Cklamovski is, for me, one of the best young coaches in Asia but the question, as always, is how much control he can exert over a club that doesn’t always operate as you expect big-city ones to. Some early selection surprises might shake things up and there are some really promising new arrivals, especially in the likes of Ryotaro Araki and Tsuyoshi Ogashiwa, but the issues in goal and central defence are concerns. The coach will never compromise from his attack-minded principles, although there might be some tactical tweaks this year, so this club will surely be one of the most entertaining to watch.
One team that’s getting little love but I consider a real title dark horse is Machida Zelvia, about to enter their first J1 campaign. At almost 40 players, the squad is way too big but they’ve made some superb signings and exactly the kind that a newly promoted club should. On-loan keeper Kosei Tani could easily be Japan’s first choice in 12 months and I think Gen Shoji, at still only 31, is a fine signing both for his play (hopefully an improvement from that at Kashima) but especially his leadership. Keiya Sento and Kai Shibato could flourish in more prominent roles, Koreans Na Sang-ho and Oh Se-hun offer creativity and a scoring threat and when Erik returns to partner Mitch Duke up front they have fine players both on and off the ball. This team will surprise many in 2024 and if they get on a roll, they could easily become yet another team to win J1 in the season of their promotion.
The experienced Ranko Popovic should be a good addition for Kashima Antlers but how long he’ll be given is a question that’s only been heightened by a less than total commitment that was shown in the off-season transfer market. In fact, in what’s set to be a new-look 4-2-3-1 it’s possible that Antlers, against all tradition, will be set to line up with an all-Japanese XI. There are big questions over both the starting quality and certainly the depth in goal and across the back four, and while Yuma Suzuki remains a threat in front of goal, how Popovic organises and encourages the three in behind him could hold the key to their fortunes.
Cerezo Osaka could have one of the oldest starting sides in the league, notably across the keeper and backline and in central midfield, and that will place real pressure on a probable all-Brazilian front three of Capixaba, new signing Vitor Bueno and Leo Ceara to provide both the creativity and the goals and I’m just not sure they have the quality there to fire the team to a top six finish.
SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA
COACH: Michael SKIBBE (GER)
KEY PLAYERS: Makoto Mitsuta, Takumu Kawamura
PLAYER TO WATCH: Sota Koshimichi
FC TOKYO
COACH: Peter CKLAMOVSKI (AUS)
KEY PLAYERS: Kuryu Matsuki, Keita Endo
PLAYER TO WATCH: Kanta Doi
MACHIDA ZELVIA
COACH: Go KURODA (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Gen Shoji, Kosei Tani
PLAYER TO WATCH: Zento Uno
KASHIMA ANTLERS
COACH: Ranko POPOVIC (SRB)
KEY PLAYERS: Yuta Higuchi, Naomichi Ueda
PLAYER TO WATCH: Kimito Nono
CEREZO OSAKA
COACH: Akio KOGIKU (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Shinji Kagawa, Leo Ceara
PLAYER TO WATCH: Sota Kitano
MIDDLE OF THE PACK (Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, Albirex Niigata, Jubilo Iwata, Tokyo Verdy)
As they were last year, Gamba Osaka are a real riddle. They have, on paper, one of the best squads in the whole league but the massive question marks over the coach and his ability to organise them remain firmly in place. The arrivals of Shinnosuke Nakatani at the back, Ryoya Yamashita out wide and the brilliant central string-puller Kota Yamada are outstanding signings, so there are no more excuses. The players to win the league are there, the issue now is the coaching and how long and in which direction the club moves if they aren’t up near the top at the midway point of the season.
Having lost their two most important players in forward Yuya Yamagishi and central midfielder Yosuke Ideguchi and not replaced them with the same quality, I expect a slide this year from Avispa Fukuoka. They won more games by a single goal than almost any other club last year and I’m still not convinced that the conservative coach Shigetoshi Hasebe is the man to take them from hopes of survival to title hopes as should be the aim at a club and in a city that has so much going for it.
If coach Rikizo Matsuhashi can perhaps stop his wild (and seemingly random) selection changes from week to week and establish a more settled XI then Albirex Niigata could be a team that could easily push for a top half finish. They’ve done well to hold onto some key players but continue to lose others and that places pressure on the cycle to keep developing them. They have solid options in most positions but aside from the dynamo Yota Komi no genuine game-breaking ability and I think they’re capped at perhaps an upper, lower-table, finish.
I’ve got a feeling that the two promoted clubs might fare better than many expect. In what was once commonplace at many clubs, Jubilo Iwata have opted to bring in a quartet of Brazilians and it’s there you feel that their fortunes will be determined. 40-year-old keeper Eiji Kawashima arrives to provide leadership and experience, Rei Hirakawa has the potential to be one of the signings of the season across the league and Ricardo Graca is, for me, one of the best defenders in Japanese football so if the other Brazilians settle – and the reports have been positive in pre-season – then Jubilo could push for a top half finish.
Tokyo Verdy have made some smart signings, especially the midfield creator Kai Miki, who has long been ready for the step up to J1, and the on-loan forward Hiroto Yamami and the continuation of Itsuki Someno’s loan could also prove to be a shrewd one. Blessed with one of the best academies in the country, if some young talent can emerge as well they’ll have more than enough to survive, especially with the vastly experienced Hiroshi Jofuku at the helm.
GAMBA OSAKA
COACH: Daniel POYATOS (ESP)
KEY PLAYERS: Shinnosuke Nakatani, Issam Jebali
PLAYER TO WATCH: Shinya Nakano
AVISPA FUKUOKA
COACH: Shigetoshi HASEBE (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Daiki Matsuoka, Kazuya Konno
PLAYER TO WATCH: Masato Shigemi
ALBIREX NIIGATA
COACH: Rikizo MATSUHASHI (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Ryosuke Kojima, Hiroki Akiyama
PLAYER TO WATCH: Yota Komi
JUBILO IWATA
COACH: Akinobu YOKOUCHI (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Ricardo Graca, Eiji Kawashima
PLAYER TO WATCH: Yosuke Furukawa
TOKYO VERDY
COACH: Hiroshi JOFUKU (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Koki Morita, Kosuke Saito
PLAYER TO WATCH: Fuki Yamada
STRUGGLERS (Kashiwa Reysol, Sagan Tosu, Consadole Sapporo, Kyoto Sanga, Shonan Bellmare)
With all these clubs that I’ve tipped to struggle a lot will depend on whether they can keep hold of the small number of real stars they have and nowhere is that more important than at Kashiwa Reysol, who without one or both of forward Mao Hosoya and winger Matheus Savio will be real relegation fodder. They have decent, experienced, options in many other positions but not the quality for me to push any higher than mid-table.
If not for the fine young coach Kenta Kawai, Sagan Tosu would be in for a real fight. The club keeps losing players but, as the most successful youth team of the past half a decade across Japanese football, they keep developing them and with Japan’s best local keeper, Park Il-gyu, remaining despite strong interest from elsewhere they should be good enough to survive.
As much as I’d hope it’s not the case, this could finally be the year where the wheels fall off at a Consadole Sapporo side that have lost more important players and not really replaced them. The quality almost across the pitch, aside from Yuya Asano and perhaps the returning loanee Musashi Suzuki, strikes me as J2 level and it’ll be down to the veteran coach Mihailo Petrovic to again coax the goals out of them to help keep them afloat.
Kyoto Sanga have a decent mix of promising young talents but, outside of Sota Kawasaki in midfield, on paper this group also looks like one you could easily see at any mid-tier J2 outfit. I don’t see the stability defensively and nor the creativity or goal threat to see them surviving.
That’s much the same for a Shonan Bellmare outfit whose fortunes may hinge on how Brazilian forward Lukian settles. He’s shown real glimpses of his quality and if he hits his strides he could easily push for 10-15 goals and that will see Bellmare survive. They have a fine keeper in Korean Song Bum-keun but not a great deal aside from that pair and I think they’re going to be in for a real battle to survive.
KASHIWA REYSOL
COACH: Masami IHARA (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Matheus Savio, Mao Hosoya
PLAYER TO WATCH: Fumiya Unoki
SAGAN TOSU
COACH: Kenta KAWAI (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Park Il-gyu, So Kawahara
PLAYER TO WATCH: Ayumu Yokoyama
CONSADOLE SAPPORO
COACH: Mihailo PETROVIC (SRB)
KEY PLAYERS: Yuya Asano, Shun Takagi
PLAYER TO WATCH: Shingo Omori
KYOTO SANGA
COACH: CHO Kwi-jae (KOR)
KEY PLAYERS: Sota Kawasaki, Daiki Kaneko
PLAYER TO WATCH: Sota Hiraga
SHONAN BELLMARE
COACH: Satoshi YAMAGUCHI (JPN)
KEY PLAYERS: Song Bum-keun, Lukian
PLAYER TO WATCH: Taiyo Hiraoka
Photos: J.League
