And just like that, the semi-final of the AFC Champions League (East Zone) is upon us.
In this compromised and elongated edition of the tournament, Urawa Reds and Jeonbuk Hyundai – both two-time ACL winners – will square off at Saitama Stadium on Thursday night for a chance to win through to what would be a fourth final for either team, but one that won’t be played until late February next year.
In order to accommodate this year’s FIFA World Cup in Qatar, being played in November and December rather than the usual June-July window, and the shift in season of the AFC Champions League, while the East Zone knockout rounds are almost complete the West Zone won’t complete theirs until early next year.
But that is all fodder for another day. The immediate focus is on Saitama Stadium, the sight of some memorable AFC Champions League moments, and the clash between two continental heavyweights.
Who wins?
Our team give their verdict on how they see the match playing out and who they think will win through to the AFC Champions League Final.
LITTLE SEPARATES THE TWO SIDES
Scott McIntyre
As hard as it is to reconcile that the likely favourite heading into this week’s AFC Champions League semi-final is a club that’s won less than a third of their domestic fixtures, there’s no question that Urawa are finding form at precisely the right point of the season.
Likewise Jeonbuk are not quite the all-conquering force right now that they have been for much of the past decade but they have several elements stacked against them when they face the nominal hosts on Thursday, none greater than that home advantage in the bubble format.
In terms of squad quality, depth, form and tactical capabilities there’s little to split the sides and, digging deeper into the numbers, there’s an argument that both haven’t been quite as impressive as the plaudits that they’ve received might indicate.
Despite having an xG of 1.71 and 1.81 in their matches against BG Pathum and JDT, Urawa sliced the Southeast Asian underdogs apart whilst Jeonbuk too outperformed the xG in their slightly clunky quarter-final dispatch of a Kobe side that were highly fortunate to have even made it that far.
Both coaches also took the highly unusual move of largely ignoring rotation between matches in the brutal heat and humidity of the Japanese summer and that saw several players fail to complete the quarter-finals, so squad selection here will also likely play a major part in the outcome.
Given such minimal squad turnover and with this being the third match in a week as the taxing weather shows no sign of abating, it’s reasonable to think that both the tempo of this clash and the number of goals may be significantly lower than that seen thus far.
With that in mind, I’ll be fascinated to see whether Reds coach Ricardo Rodriguez finally opts to start his best (and indeed only pure) striker with Kasper Junker doing all he can to show he’s worthy of leading the line with some eye-catching cameos off the bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesHaving played much of the season with either an out-of-position fullback (Takahiro Akimoto) or central midfielder (Yusuke Matsuo) in the lone striking role in what’s consistently been a 4-2-3-1 formation this is a big stage where it could be a huge risk to continue overlooking a dominant and clinical finisher in what’s almost certain to be a tight encounter.
For Jeonbuk the question is just how and who can provide the spark to unlock a home side that have been watertight both domestically and on the continent, with the K League outfit struggling for a creative presence outside of brief flashes from left winger Modou Barrow.
PREDICTION: Urawa 1-0 Jeonbuk (AET)
HOME CROWD AN ADVANTAGE
Paul Williams
In a game as important as an AFC Champions League semi-final the result can often be decided on fine margins, and as much as any of those on the pitch, the home ground advantage afforded to Urawa Reds very much falls into that category.
It’s unquantifiable, but there can be no doubt Urawa are boosted by playing in front of their own home fans – especially with singing and chanting allowed again. It may only provide a marginal benefit in the grand scheme of things, but it’s a benefit all the same.
Embed from Getty ImagesOn the field, the match presents a clash between two titans of the continental scene – both playing in their fifth ACL semi-final and both looking to add a third piece of silverware to the trophy cabinet – but with two contrasting styles of play.
While their styles are contrasting, their approach as been the same. Both sides only made one change to their starting XI between the Round of 16 and quarter-final, and facing their third game in a week in hot, humid and sticky conditions, it will be interesting to see whether either coach opts for more rotation heading into this encounter.
That is especially the case for Jeonbuk, who had both games go to extra time and have therefore had to play an hour’s extra football. That has to take a toll on the players. It was noticeable in both quarter-finals that players were going down with cramp late in the games. Fitness and fatigue will play a part
Jeonbuk’s two matches in this central hub in Saitama have been slower in pace, one could even say laborious. Perhaps that is due to having the early kick off and having to play in the sticky afternoon heat and humidity.
Either way they have ground their way to results against Daegu and Vissel Kobe rather than overpower their opponents with blistering football.
While it may not be to everyone’s liking, Jeonbuk’s style has been incredibly effective and if they win, they nor their fans will care how it came about. What cannot be discounted is their experience.
Hong Jeong-ho, Kim Jin-su, Kim Bo-kyung, Lee Seung-gi, Moon Seon-min and even younger members of the squad like Paik Seung-ho and Song Min-kyu are experienced Korean internationals that have plenty of big game experience behind them, both with club and country.
Urawa are equally experienced – their XI against BG Pathum had an average age of 28.09 against that of Jeonbuk’s at 28.27 against Kobe – but it’s the vibrancy in their attacking third that has been the most eye-catching aspect of their performances.
Granted they had the “easier” draw against JDT and BG Pathum United, but on both occasions they sprung out of the box and had the ball in the back of the net within the opening minutes, even if VAR ruled out their effort against BG Pathum.
Yoshio Koizumi has been particularly impressive in the playmaker role in behind the tireless Yusuke Matsuo, who provides a real energy, if not always the final product, up top. Along with David Moberg Karlsson, who has five goals in this campaign and three in his last two games, it’s an attack with plenty of speed, fluidity and creativity.
How that style of attack goes against a more resolute Jeonbuk defence will go a long way to determining the outcome of this match, but in front of their home fans it’s hard to look past Urawa.
PREDICTION: Urawa 1-0 Jeonbuk
FATIGUE A CONCERN FOR JEONBUK
Michael Church
It’s hard to know how the AFC Champions League semi-final will go on Thursday as both teams bring contrasting styles to the game and it may well be that fatigue and the influence of the crowd will have a significant bearing on the result.
Playing at Saitama Stadium with the home fans behind them and having scored nine goals in their preceding two games, it’s probably fair to say Urawa go in as favourites even if Jeonbuk have a squad full of talented Korea Republic internationals and more than capable foreigners.
Urawa have played some entertaining and highly energetic football so far. They’ve made strong starts in both games, but it could be argued that the challenges presented by Johor Darul Ta’zim and BG Pathum United fall well short of the test that awaits against Jeonbuk.
The J.League side’s defence has yet to be truly tested and Jeonbuk are sure to try to impose a greater level of physicality on the game than either of Urawa’s previous opponents managed.
This Jeonbuk team bears some of the hallmarks of the side that won the title in 2006. That team was effective if not particularly pleasing on the eye, and in Ze Carlos they had a physical striker capable of punishing opposing defences.
Embed from Getty ImagesGustavo fulfils a similar role in this team and, while he’s not 100 percent fit, he showed how much of a threat he still carries against Vissel Kobe, setting up the first and scoring the second.
Urawa will need to be aware of the challenge he brings and for a defence that has had a relatively easy ride there will be a requirement to be switched on to his physicality from the first whistle, if he starts.
Jeonbuk coach Kim Sang-sik admitted after the quarter-final that he was unsure how to prepare his team after playing extra-time in back-to-back games, and how well the Koreans recover from 240 minutes of football in five days in hot, demanding conditions will be a deciding factor.
Urawa will no doubt look to make a quick start again but Jeonbuk should be able to hold them at bay in the early stages. But if the Japanese side can maintain that energy and drive deep into the second half then Ricardo Rodriguez’s team can take advantage of Jeonbuk’s growing fatigue to win.
PREDICTION: Urawa 2-1 Jeonbuk
URAWA TRAIN TOUGH TO STOP
Martin Lowe
What we’ve seen over the last week in the AFC Champions League has demonstrated two distinct ways in which to succeed at this level.
Jeonbuk Hyundai have utilised their experience, grit and patience to full effect, while Urawa Reds have blown teams away with a free flowing, fast paced style of football.
While their styles have already been contrasted during these knockouts, it does feel like one is clearly better suited to progress to the competition’s final in the new year.
It must be said, Jeonbuk have fully lived up to expectations so far in Japan. On the back of, for them, some pretty stop-start form domestically, few expected them to blow any opposition out of the water here.
Yet, they surprisingly struggled to really take command of either Daegu or Vissel. In both encounters their opponents could have easily edged out Jeonbuk before extra time.
Defensively they look lapse, a worry given the way Urawa have started, not to mention having played an hour more than their upcoming opponents over the last seven days. Kim Sang-sik has little choice to rotate a squad lacking the depth his opposite number has the luxury of doing.
For Urawa, we’ve already seen in-game rotation provide the necessary refresh their game has needed. Their route to the semi-final may have been simpler on paper, but they’ve made the most of the opportunities granted to them.
Yoshio Koizumi and David Moberg Karlsson have both raised their game to a level we’ve rarely seen from either in a good few months domestically, so it’ll be interesting to see if this is a turning point in the team’s season or a case of an opposition being caught up in the significance of the round, supplemented by an inspiringly partisan crowd in Saitama.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile for me, Urawa go in to this semi-final as favourites, the hosts did have trouble against BG Pathum United while the match remained compact and slow in tempo.
While Jeonbuk may have an abundance of counter attacking options available to them in the form of Mo Barrow and Moon Seon-min (pictured above), who caused Kobe significant headaches in the quarter-final, it might be worth slowing the pace down to utilise experience and their more central options, if they are to stop this Urawa juggernaut from claiming another scalp.
Urawa’s form and significant home backing, coupled with Jeonbuk’s likely fatigue all points to one clear result.
PREDICTION: Urawa 3-0 Jeonbuk
Listen to Episode 90 of The Asian Game Podcast as we preview the ACL (East Zone) knockout rounds and speak with Urawa Reds’ Danish duo Kasper Junker and Alexander Scholz
