The countdown is on to the 2023 AFC Asian Cup – which will actually be held in early 2024 – after the Final Draw was conducted at a lavish ceremony on Doha on Thursday afternoon.
With dignitaries, head coaches and past players all descending on the Qatari capital, the draw marked the first official step on the road to the tournament after the Gulf state stepped in at the 11th hour as replacement host after China was forced to withdraw from hosting as a result of ongoing COVID restrictions.
With the official logo of the tournament also revealed, there was plenty of interest across the continent as to which nations would be drawn together.
Immediately after the completion of the draw, Scott, Paul and Martin were joined by Wael Jabir LIVE from the festivities in Doha to give their thoughts on the draw on The Asian Game Podcast.
Which nations lucked out and which are out of luck?
GROUP A
Slice of luck for the hosts
Martin Lowe
The whole draw ceremony was talking about Qatar and how they’ve supported Asia through the last few years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if most people in AFC will be quite happy with the draw in terms of Qatar, (who are) obviously in a state at the moment following the World Cup.
They had the ‘Group of Life’ at the World Cup and that didn’t really work out for them. But they couldn’t have hand picked a better draw.
China are still reeling from multiple lockdowns, a lot of things are happening with the CFA, etc. Lebanon have got a new coach in who’s trying to reconstruct things, (but) it’s not working out for him too well. Tajikistan are quite an interesting pick to take on, but they’re still not at the same level as a number of the other groups.
Even if you look a bit further, if Qatar get out of the group they probably don’t face anybody really strong until the semi-final stage. So they’ve been given a nice group and a nice route through to the final. We’ll see in the Gold Cup if Queiroz can change things around, but at the moment there’s a lot of work to be done, but at least they’ve got time to progress through this group.
GROUP B
A Tricky Challenge
Paul Williams
For Australia, it’s not the worst result (but) there’s some tricky challenges there. They played both Syria and Uzbekistan at the last Asian Cup, and needed some Maty Ryan heroics to get past Uzbekistan on penalties. They had some nervy moments against Syria, and of course we know what happened in the playoff (in 2017) a few years before that for for Russia 2018 as well.
So there’s some tricky challenges there, but (Graham) Arnold has spoken a bit on the back of the World Cup and what they were able to achieve, of wanting to create what he sees as one of the best Socceroos’ teams of all times. If that is the aim, then the objective should be to finish top of this group and to go deep into this tournament.
So there’s some banana skins, there’s some challenges, but I certainly think for Australia with where they look to be heading as a team, they should be aiming to finish finish top of this group.
For India, I think it’s a really unfortunate draw. They’re going to face some tricky challenges, not just against Australia, but against the likes of Uzbekistan and Syria as well. We know Igor Stimac is under a lot of pressure in India, (so) they would have been hoping for perhaps maybe something like a Group A situation, something a bit of a softer draw, (but) they’ve landed themselves a pretty tough draw here and it’s going to be really an uphill battle for them.
And Uzbekistan and Syria are going to have a mighty battle to, I think, probably finish second in this group.
GROUP C
Unpredictable
Martin Lowe
I think it’s the most unpredictable group on paper. You’ve got Iran with a new coach, UAE are a little bit of a mess at the moment in terms of structurally, but they’ve obviously got the talent there. Hong Kong are coming in with a bit more optimism after quite a difficult four year period due to COVID, but also coming back after 50 years of not coming to the tournament, and then Palestine, probably sneaking in there, quietly coming in, in form.
Most of the time with Palestine it’s usually the struggle of having competitive games in the run up to an Asian Cup, (but) that won’t be an issue this time because of where it’s situated; they’ll have a couple of Asian Cup qualifiers for 2027 (which will) have already gotten underway. So I think Palestine and UAE, that clash between those two, it’s probably going to be the most crucial.
But I’m not discounting that Iran go safely through by any means with a new coach in Amir Ghalenoei in terms of how he’s going to approach things. I think it’s an interesting one, I think any of these teams can start like a house on fire, any of them can really fall off the radar. So I think this is where we’re going to get a big scalp if we see one.
Upheaval in the UAE
Wael Jabir
I think it (the reaction in UAE) will be fairly positive. Obviously, UAE have played Iran recently. The way that groups work, I don’t think they would have expected an easy one, no matter what. So I think most of the focus would have been on Pot 3 and Pot 4. In that regard, I think with with Palestine and Hong Kong, I think it’s not the most difficult group.
However, as mentioned, the UAE are in a transitional point and interestingly, one of the notable absentees that we’ve not seen here is the coach, so we’ve not seen Rodolfo Arruabarrena at all, which will raise some questions. Actually we did not also not see the FA president, Sheikh Rashid, instead, the UAE were represented by the vice president Abdullah Al-Jneibi. So that’s interesting, and makes you wonder about the interest in 2023 Asian Cup.
GROUP D
An upset is on the cards
Scott McIntyre
(There’s) two former champions, obviously, in the group. I think the thing that we haven’t touched on is the the timing of the tournament, of course it’s in that early-to-mid January window.
So for the domestic players here in the J.League, it’s at the end of a busy season and then you’ve got the whole question about the European players, not just for Japan, but for a range of nations as well, and how many of those will come, how many of those will be on holidays? I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see too many of them, to be honest, which I think will be disappointing for the tournament.
For Japan, if it is going to be a predominantly J.League based squad, you have that off the back of a very lengthy domestic campaign as well. So there are issues and challenges for Japan. We heard (Hajime) Moriyasu talk as well after the ceremony, he said that he felt all nations will be familiar with Japan and what kind of challenge they present. Obviously, that’s the case for Vietnam under Philippe Troussier, a former Japan coach, a long time ago now, a very long time ago (in fact).
So returning to face a country that he holds very dear in his heart. We’ve spoken on the pod before, what kind of football are we going to see under Troussier? Will it be a departure from what we saw under Park? (It’s) obviously a very talented generation of players, we know that, (and) likewise for Indonesia, perhaps an even more gifted, younger generation of players as well.
So grouping two powerhouses of Southeast Asian football together is a fascinating subplot. And then Iraq of course off a very successful Gulf Cup campaign under a newish coach as well.
So I think it’s a very, very difficult group and it’s one where I think all the nations really… you would think Japan should be good enough to get out, but it’s one that you might see a real surprise nation dropping down into that fourth slot and and ultimately not making it through.
GROUP E
Comfort for Klinsmann
Paul Williams
They spoke to Jurgen Klinsmann immediately afterwards on the draw (coverage), I think he’d be pretty happy and pretty comfortable with that draw for Korea. There’s not too many enormous challenges there. I mean, we’ve spoken and Martin’s written for the website before of the improvement in Bahrain under Helio Sousa, so they present a potential banana skin. But otherwise against Malaysia and Jordan, you’d expect the talent of South Korea to be too strong.
But it gets it back to the point you [Scott] made with Japan and the talent they might have available. It’s the same with Korea as well, because the timing of this tournament, how many clubs from Europe are going to be happy – I mean, they have to release them if they get selected – but how many are going to be happy to release their players? We saw at the last Asian Cup Son Heung-min even arrived during the group stages I think it was, very, very late in the peace in an agreement they came to with Tottenham (and) of course had the Asian Games around then to try and get him that military exemption that they were dealing with as well.
So you’re going to have the likes of Kim Min-jae, Hwang Hee-chan, Song Heung-min that are going to be having to deal with that club versus country battle. So that might present some some issues for Juergen Klinsmann, but I still see them being good enough.
Kim Pan-gon is going to coach against his home country, now (that he’s) in charge of Malaysia. So that’s an interesting subplot to this as well. He’ll know Korea and the Korean plays exceptionally well. There’s a lot of excitement in Malaysia for how they’ve gone under Kim and the players and the direction that he’s taken them as well.
There’s excitement, as I said before, about Bahrain and the under the radar improvement that they’ve made under Helio Sousa over the last couple of years as well. And Jordan have got talent as well.
So outside of Korea, who I expect to top this group, I think the battle for second is going to be really interesting as well. We know some third place teams will get through, so that’ll be that’ll be interesting to see (because) like you said with the other group as to which nation slips down to miss out, because all (nations) probably come in thinking that they might have had a shot, (especially) knowing that some third place teams get through, but one of them is going to leave disappointed.
GROUP F
Not so easy for Saudi
Wael Jabir
At first look, it looks like this is easy for Saudi Arabia, but I have my doubts. One thing is, of course, they are still without a coach. The Federation have announced that they will only be naming a new coach in June. That leaves them obviously not playing anything is in June, so (it’s) quite a short window for whoever comes to prepare for the Asian Cup. That’s one challenge.
As you’ve mentioned, Thailand, the powerhouse of Southeast Asia. Oman who we’ve seen… their two games in the World Cup qualifiers against Saudi, they were not easy and they did pose a challenge and I think once again, they will have a lot of support as well in Qatar, but so will Saudi. So quite a lot of challenges.
Again, not to dismiss Kyrgyzstan, a different standard of opponent. We’ve seen Saudi maybe has not historically done very well against Central Asian opponents, so quite a lot of different challenges there and I think it’s not going to be as straightforward as it might appear.
Photo: Asian Football Confederation
Listen to The Asian Game Podcast as we give instant reaction to the final draw for the AFC Asian Cup 2023
