Qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2026 will come down to the wire in June.
After eight thrilling matchdays across this vast continent, only Japan and Iran have secured their spot at football’s global showpiece in the USA, Canada and Mexico next year, meaning the final four teams to book their automatic spot will be decided in the final 18 matches played in June.
Eight teams remain in contention for those final four spots, but beyond that, there are a further two teams who will qualify from the Fourth Round, meaning that those who miss out on automatic qualification this time around will still have a chance.
As it stands, only one team has been completely eliminated, that being DPR Korea, who bowed out after conceding a stoppage time winner against UAE. Otherwise, every team remains in contention, be it for an automatic spot or for third and fourth in the group to progress to the Fourth Round.
It sets up what will be a thrilling conclusion come June. But before then, with another window done and dusted, here is what we learned from Matchdays 7 and 8.
Qatar is in trouble
You’ll send yourself mad trying to make sense of this Qatari team. How can a team look so good in tournament play, as they did when they won their second straight AFC Asian Cup on home soil just over 12 months ago, but look so poor outside of that?
A country’s national team is a representation of that nation’s domestic football scene, so perhaps it is fitting this Qatari side is so perplexing given Qatari football doesn’t seem to have figured out what it is, or where it sits in the landscape of Asian competition.
Hosting the FIFA World Cup should’ve been the springboard for a bold new era for Qatari football, but 27 months on from that magical month, what has really changed? The Qatar Stars League struggles for recognition and attention; it’s teams now even struggling to make an impact in Asia, as well.
Only once since 2019, before this year, has a QSL side made the final eight of the AFC Champions League, and on that occasion Al Duhail was embarrassed 7-0 by Al Hilal.
Meanwhile, the national team is on its fourth manager in just three years as it grapples with an identity crisis post-World Cup. One has to wonder where this team would be without the generational talent of Akram Afif. He was superb in their 5-1 demolition of DPR Korea in Doha last week, looking every bit the AFC Player of the Year.
After a humbling and humiliating end to 2024, with a 5-0 defeat at the hands of neighbours and rivals, UAE (which cost ‘Tintin’ Marquez his job), it was a result and performance that suggested this was a team that perhaps had turned a corner under new coach Luis Garcia.
But all the ugly problems reared their heads again on a freezing night in Bishkek on Tuesday night. Against a side that Qatar would on paper be expected to beat, even away from home, they were put to the sword by a Kyrgyz side that were simply better on the night.
Even the expectation that they would win against a side that is ranked 59 places lower on the FIFA rankings, perhaps it’s time to recalibrate our expectations for this Qatar side because they have proven themselves unworthy of such expectation. Why should we expect this side to win these games when their recent body of work says otherwise?
Back in Bishkek, Afif was kept largely quiet, and without his drive and impetus, Qatar were impotent. Despite shading possession, it was Kyrgyzstan that had more shots, more shots on target and more touches in the opposition area. They were worth their 3-1 win, one that keeps their faint hopes alive for another window.
And at the end of it all, as Qatar fly home with their tail between their legs, we are left to question just who this Qatar side is. Until even they figure it out, the World Cup will remain a distant dream.
Australia get things back on track
If a week is a long time in football, then four months is a lifetime. Cast your mind back to November and Australia only just survived what could’ve been a disastrous international window.
Only a fortunate and incredibly marginal offside call saved their blushes against Saudi Arabia after the Green Falcons thought they had scored a stoppage time winner. To walk away with one point felt like a relief after all three seemed to have disappeared.
Five days later in Riffa, on the outer edges of the Bahraini capital, Australia were seconds away from a second defeat to Bahrain in this campaign before Kusini Yengi rescued a point for Australia deep into stoppage time.
It left Australia with just one win after six games and big question marks heading into the March window.
To walk away with two points from the window fell far short of expectation, but in the wash up at the end of this campaign, could be the difference between success and failure. Without those two points, Australia would’ve been last in the group heading into the March window. As it was, they were second.
With only four games remaining, however, there was no more margin for error. Any points dropped now could be catastrophic for their hopes of automatic qualification, perhaps even progression to the next round.
But after near disaster in November, it was near perfection for Australia this week. They had to ride their luck early against Indonesia, when the aggression from Patrick Kluivert’s side had them rocking in the opening 15 minutes.
If Kevin Diks’ penalty goes in, perhaps it’s a different story. But it didn’t, and in a group of super fine margins, Australia took full advantage of their luck. Once they took the lead, it felt like there was only going to be one winner. Australia has often been left to rue their profligacy in front of goal, but not so in Sydney.
The 5-1 scoreline may have flattered them slightly in the end, but once they took control of the game Indonesia struggled to find a way back in.
On Tuesday, against China, the roles were reversed. It was Australia that came out the aggressor, looking to get the game on their terms early, and once again they capitalised early with two goals inside the opening half hour.
It was the most convincing window of Tony Popovic’s time in charge, and leaves Australia in a commanding position in Group C, with a three-point lead over Saudi Arabia with a vastly superior goal difference.
Saudi Arabia’s goal scoring woes continue
The Green Falcons cannot buy a goal at the moment, and that will be a concern for Herve Renard heading into the final window in June in which they simply have to win both games.
And while it’s stating the bleeding obvious, to do that they need to score goals.
In their last six figures in Group C they’ve scored a grand total of one goal, that coming in last week’s 1-0 win over China.
While scoring wasn’t necessarily the name of the game against Japan on Tuesday, it was obvious Renard’s side came to get a point, it was another game in which they failed to find the back of the net.
The question is where does Renard turn to find an answer to his woes? There is a dearth of goal scoring options within the domestic Saudi Pro League.
Al Khaleej’s Abdullah Al-Salem, the top Saudi goal scorer in the SPL this season, made his debut at the ripe old age of 32 against China but doesn’t have a strong pedigree behind him. Is he going to be the man to lead the line and take on the goal scoring burden?
Renard opted against selecting Saleh Al-Shehri for this squad, who has been a regular under the Frenchman across both of his stints in charge, while Firas Al-Buraikan is having far less impact for Al Ahli this season since the arrival of Ivan Toney in the Saudi summer.
The burden, as it often does, will fall on the shoulders of Salem Al-Dawsari; this team’s inspirational leader in so many ways. But even he has faltered this campaign.
In both the 1-1 draw with Indonesia on MD1 and 0-0 draw with Bahrain on MD4 he failed to convert from the penalty spot; the latter incensing then coach Roberto Mancini in what was to be his final game in charge.
If those spot kicks are converted, and those draws turned into wins, the landscape suddenly looks very different for Saudi Arabia. For one, Roberto Mancini may still be in a job if they won three of their first four, but they carry forth from a position of strength in the group.
Looking at it in the most simple form, those extra four points would have Saudi Arabia one point clear in second heading into the final window, allowing them to attack the final two games from a position of strength.
But every team in Group C has those ‘what if’ scenarios. Renard can only deal in reality, and the reality is Saudi Arabia has scored just four goals in eight games.
If they want to have any hope of qualifying for the World Cup, either in this round or next, they simply have to find an answer to their woes.
Korea is in a rut
Winter might be ending in South Korea, but the big black clouds continue to loom over the country’s national team after they failed to capitalise on back-to-back home games against Oman and Jordan.
It’s been a challenging almost two years from Korea, almost from the moment they appointed Jurgen Klinsmann to replace Paulo Bento. It was a strange appointment at the time, and by the time the team’s two star players turned on each other amid a chaotic Asian Cup campaign, the writing was on the wall.
But that wasn’t the end of it. The process to appoint Klinsmann, and his successor, former national team star Hong Myung-bo, became political, as Korea’s bureaucracy turned their attention to the dealings of the Korea Football Association and it’s controversial president, Chung Mong-gyu.
Those hearings, and the controversial re-election of Chung for an unprecedented fourth term, laid bare the structural failings of football in Korea at a time when the national team was also struggling on the pitch, opening their campaign with a 0-0 draw at home to Palestine.
While that was followed by three wins on the bounce, the performances were far less convincing, and they closed 2024 with another draw with Palestine, this time a 1-1 draw in Amman.
Amid controversy around the state of pitches in Korea, which saw these two home fixtures moved away from the Seoul World Cup Stadium, and is an issue that has plagued the opening of the K League season, these two results and performances have done nothing to remove the black cloud hanging over the team and the game in Korea.
Two wins would’ve seen them secure automatic qualification for next year’s World Cup, but two 1-1 draws left a bitter aftertaste. Too often they lack a fluency you would expect of a side featuring Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in and Hwang Hee-chan.
For players that play so free at club level, when they pull on the national team kit they seem shackled by the system and burdened by expectation.
Only three goals in three games against Palestine, Oman and Jordan falls well short of expectation.
Real questions must now be asked as to whether Hong Myung-bo is the best man to take this team forward and realise its potential
With their next fixture being a daunting trip to Basra to face an equally desperate Iraq, there is a scenario whereby the miss automatic qualification altogether, which needless to say would be a disaster for a country that has qualified for nine straight World Cups.
Captain and talisman Son Heung-min is urging the team, and by extension the country, to remain positive.
“We are still top of the group, it’s important we keep positive and keep moving forward and keep working hard,” he told The Asian Game’s Scott McIntyre after the game.
“I’m staying calm. I believe in my team and I think we have a lot of quality. We missed two big players in our team. It’s tough, people expecting easy games to get three points but football has never been easy and you never get three points for free.”
Can the summer sunshine bring with it a bright new outlook for Korean football?
Destiny in Uzbekistan’s hands
Uzbekistan has never been in this position before.
In falling agonisingly short in both 2014 and 2018, they snatched defeat from jaws of victory, but even on those occasions they had never been in the position they currently find themselves.
That is one game and one win away from the FIFA World Cup. The closest they came was back in 2014, heading into the final two games in second spot, behind Korea but ahead of Iran.
In theory they were in 2014, in the final group game against Qatar, but they also needed Iran to do the business against Korea in Seoul to stand in chance.
This time, their destiny is entirely in their hands. When they travel to the UAE to face the Emirates on 5 June they do so sitting second in Group A, with a four-point gap to third-placed UAE, knowing a win or a draw will guarantee them a spot in the World Cup.
While they’ll feel a sense of disappointment leaving Iran with just a point, having twice taken the lead in an entertaining 2-2 draw (the fourth draw in a row between these two teams), the outcome of the DPR Korea-UAE game – which the Emirates won with a 98th minute winner – meant qualification was off the table for this window even if they had won.
But the performances they displayed, first in their 1-0 win over neighbours – and 2031 AFC Asian Cup bidding partners – Kyrgyzstan and then against Iran should give them plenty of confidence heading into that window and games against UAE and Qatar.
Questions have been asked in the past as to the mental fortitude of Uzbekistan in these clutch moments, but this generation seems determined to rights the wrongs of the past, with star playmaker Abbosbek Fayzullaev telling The Asian Game back in 2023 that this generation would play the best football that Uzbekistan has ever seen.
Qualification for last year’s Olympics already went some way to changing the narrative, as did defender Abdukodir Khusanov signing for Manchester City, but qualifying for a World Cup would represent a new era for Uzbek football.
They’ve looked in control throughout this campaign; never flustered and confident in the direction they are heading. Even an unfortunate change of coach, with Srecko Katanec having to step aside for health reasons, hasn’t seemed to derail them.
This was a window in which more questions were asked, with a trip to Iran and a new coach at the helm, and while a win at the Azadi Stadium would’ve been a real statement result, they lose nothing by coming away with just a point.
Photos: Asian Football Confederation
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